Turkey demands peace for Ukraine from Russia on the basis of respect for territorial integrity and the inviolability of states' boundaries

29.03.23 13:20

Historically, there is no more loyal and consistent ally in the world than the Turks. Even towards former enemies, who are often aware at a critical moment that their salvation lies in their friendship with Turkey. Sometimes too late...


 The most eloquent historical example is Austria-Hungary (the Habsburg Empire of Austria until 1867).  Perhaps no state in history has been more hostile to the Ottoman Empire, and the wars between the monarchies went on for centuries. Nevertheless, at the time of the First World War, when the question of keeping the Austro-Hungarian Empire as a single state came up, the Ottoman Empire became its most loyal ally.


 Throughout the whole of the First World War, the Turkish soldiers fought, amongst other things, for the Austro-Hungarian Empire, for its integrity. Although Turkey fought on 5-7 'home' fronts, Turkish units were still constantly being redeployed to those parts of the Austro-Hungarian front where the situation was dire.


However, the memory of that "fraternity of arms" is still remembered in the countries that formed the backbone of the "lost empire", notably Hungary. Nevertheless, the memory of that "brotherhood in arms" is still remembered in the states that formed the backbone of the "lost empire", particularly in Hungary.


It is largely due to the fault of the Armenian lobby, which pushed the country into suicidal aggression against Ukraine, that Russia is now in a state of disaster. The question today is "to be or not to be" Russia - no more no less.


Paradoxically, one of the few countries that are interested today in keeping Russia within its internationally recognised borders is Turkey. This is despite the fact that there are no "reciprocal similar wishes" from Russian patriots. Almost all of them "divide" Turkey by "taking away" Istanbul and Constantinople and the straits.


History does not seem to teach the Russian patriots anything. They once already "dreamed" about the straits and crosses on Hagia Sophia. And they almost lost their country (and many of them really lost it, being unnecessary refugees). And also lost thousands of crosses over the Russian Orthodox churches. These churches, we recall, were ruthlessly destroyed by the Bolsheviks who came to power in Russia, after the unrest provoked by the war "over the straits".


And many Russian White Guards who have escaped from Bolsheviks in 1920-22 have found temporary shelter in that very Constantinople where they have met, on the one hand, with sympathy and sincere desire of help from the poor after defeat in war Turks, and arrogance, avidity from "brother Christians" - local Armenians and Greeks.


The Russian blogger Anatoly Nesmiyan writes very interestingly about the hopes of the Russian leadership for Turkey's help in the disastrous situation with the war in Ukraine:


"It is stated that Putin is expected in Turkey. The visit is due to take place in the foreseeable and near future. There are two reasons for the visit blitz. Well, two and a half. And they are all strongly linked to each other.


The Chinese visit seems to have failed. Well, in terms of the expectations placed on it in the Kremlin. The Chinese are an unhurried people and measure everything in years and decades. Putin cannot wait that long. His horizon is next Monday at the latest, and we are not talking about years. So it was ridiculous to expect "here and now" from China, but there is always hope for a miracle, for the Wenk army. And as always, unfulfilled.


Hence Turkey. We need to persuade Erdogan to facilitate an acceptable peace or, more accurately, a truce in Ukraine. At least a temporary one. Not tomorrow, but today. Or better yet, even yesterday. Not for free, of course. And this is the second reason for the hasty visit.


The second reason is the gas hub, one of the topics that will greatly assist Erdogan as an argument in the election battle. Therefore Putin in exchange for assistance will promise the most chocolaty terms and will agree to all Erdogan's demands, just to solve the first problem. The demands, by the way, are known: a discount on Russian gas "from 25 per cent and higher" and a deferral of payments for gas, including those already received, for at least a year. A new requirement is that Gazprom must build the pipeline at its own expense. Turkey has no money for it after the earthquake.


Here the reason "two and a half" may also emerge - Syria. The Turks are directly interested in creating a continuous exclusion zone along the entire border between Syria and Turkey to cut the Kurds off from Turkish territory and create a barrier to refugees from Syria. Russia has so far created obstacles to this in a number of locations. Turks are not happy about that. Therefore, there may be some progress on this issue as well.


The nuance, of course, is that Turkey is unlikely to be able to contribute to the ceasefire. As the conflict rolls towards a Ukrainian offensive, there is no way to stop it now. The outcome of this offensive is unknown and uncertain, but the risks are becoming extremely high: The AFU could smash into Russian defences, but it could also break through them. Or create other threats - until the offensive has begun, its scenarios are difficult to assess, the probabilities of any of them are roughly equal.


If the outcome of this offensive is unfavorable for the Kremlin, the position at possible talks will be much weaker. And if there is a qualitative change in the situation (say, the Ukrainian Armed Forces move directly to Crimea or even manage to enter it), then there may be no negotiations at all, even theoretically.


Hence the urgency to do something now. Before this extremely exciting moment.


Hence the urgent blitz visit. To try and persuade a partner. Although this is also a miracle strategy - what if it happens?"


An even sadder picture for Russia is given by the Kremlin Tabakerka resource. According to this resource, Vladimir Putin's announcement of the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus could drastically worsen his relations with China and, in fact, the last partner the Kremlin can hope for is Ankara.


After the announcement about nuclear weapons in Belarus (whose leader Aleksandr Lukashenko is seen by Beijing as its ally in Europe), the Chinese wonder whether Vladimir Putin realises that his actions violate the commitment he made with Xi Jinping not to deploy nuclear weapons in the territory of other countries and to avoid nuclear escalation in principle. Beijing also asked, does this mean that Russian friends will also violate commitments made in other areas? That is, Beijing already considers Belarus to be "its" sphere of influence and asks Putin "not to meddle" there without its permission. It turns out that further hope for "alliance" with China may turn out to be a humiliating "loss of face" for Russia in front of the Celestial Empire.


Thus, Turkey remains the last partner with which Russia can realistically "get out" of the current critical situation with the war in Ukraine without losing its sovereignty. But of course Turkey insists on an early conclusion of peace between Russia and Ukraine on the basis of respect for the territorial integrity and inviolability of the states' borders and is increasingly pushing the Russian leadership to initiate de-occupation. This may be the main topic of the Russian head of state's forthcoming visit to Turkey.


Regarding Vladimir Putin's visit to Turkey, the situation is very interesting. Turkey remains one of the few countries that will not extradite Vladimir Putin to The Hague. Meanwhile, the "brother Armenians", for whom Vladimir Putin has done so much, also decided to ratify the Rome Statute on the very day when they decided to open their land border with Turkey to third-country nationals. Based on the norms of the Rome Statute, Armenia is obligated to extradite people to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. The ratification came two days after Vladimir Putin was declared wanted by the ICC.



Alexandr Gedevanov

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