Recent events, both in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and especially the recent mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin with PMC "Wagner" with its march on Moscow showed that in modern geopolitical combinations the role of Private Military Companies (PMCs) has increased manifold. Therefore, there can be no doubt that where there is no possibility to attract regular armies of major powers to solve dubious geopolitical problems, PMCs will be involved.  Or PMCs will be created for dubious geopolitical projects.

Among the latter dubious geopolitical projects, from the point of view of all international norms, the project of "saving" the separatist "Artsakh" on the territory of the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan looks absolutely doomed and futile. No matter how hard Armenian nationalists try to force Russia and Iran to fight for the "Artsakh" separatists, they have failed so far, as both Russia and Iran cherish the remnants of their strength and capabilities and are fed by the fear of a big war (in the case of Iran) and, perhaps, for their statehood as a state within the framework of the UN or international law.

Currently, the Armenian lobby is actively working on projects to involve armed forces in the PMC regime, in Armenian interests. This geopolitical adventure may well "explode" the region of the South Caucasus, and this will have a negative impact on all countries of the region, including Georgia. Especially since the backbone for this PMC, apparently, will be formed not only from Armenians of Armenia, "Artsakh" and Abkhazian Armenians. With a high degree of probability we can say that the main and overwhelming "cannon fodder" of the "Armenian PMC" will once again be Russians.

The creation of the Armenian battalion "ARBAT", which was also written about by "Caucasus Plus" in the article "Echmiadzin blessed Armenian fighters for war against Ukraine" ( https://kavkazplus.com/news.php?id=40470 ) became such a landmark event that this information was published by the authoritative American Institute for the Study of War ISW in its report of 2 July 2023, analysing the current state of the Russian-Ukrainian war:

"Russian sources claim that Russian officials are sending a newly formed Armenian volunteer battalion to Ukraine. Russian sources circulated photos of the Arbat volunteer battalion at a send-off ceremony at Moscow's Armenian Cathedral on 2 July. One Russian source suggested that the volunteer battalion includes Armenian citizens as well as ethnic Armenians from Russian-occupied Abkhazia."

The Russian source mentioned is Ilya Gusarov's article on dzen.ru "Armenian Battalion "ARBAT". What is known. Relations of Armenians" (https://dzen.ru/a/ZKFsFHlqQEdbjFCZ ):

"On 30 June, a blessing ceremony was held at the Armenian Apostolic Church in Moscow for the fighters of the established Armenian battalion "ARBAT" heading to the ribbon-cutting. This is what sources report. Reporting considerations.

As it turns out, the real name of the battalion is "ArBat". It is easy to assume that this name has no relation to the famous Moscow street sung by half-Armenian Bulat Okudzhava. It is a complex word with two roots -ar (Armenian) and -bat (battalion).

The newspaper Gorlovka Pravda today publishes a statement by Armen Sarkisian, an honourable citizen of Gorlovka and president of the local boxing federation. He heartily congratulates YUSUPA - a true friend, a man, a brave, honest son of the Chechen people - on his birthday! In this address Armen Sargsyan calls himself the founder of "ArBat" battalion.

There are many publications about businessman Armen Sargsyan on the Internet. Let's say that it is reported that he has a very complicated biography. But for me, personally, it doesn't matter now. He is doing a good deed.

As we can see, the commander of the legendary "Pyatnashka" Abkhazian Akhra Avidzba is present at the church ceremony. I do not rule out that there are Armenians-Amshenians in the new battalion. They live in Abkhazia and are one of the main nationalities of this country, only slightly inferior in number to Abkhazians themselves. Fighting guys. They proved themselves during the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict as part of the battalion named after Marshal Baghramyan (later a second Armenian battalion was formed).

Judging by the photo one can conclude that the ceremony in the Armenian church was attended by several dozen people. A bit small for a battalion. Let's assume that this is the backbone of the battalion:

I was a little confused by the Armenian flag on the officer's chevron:

The question arises, where does the battalion even go? Isn't it going to Armenia? Don't worry, it is going to the right place. Apparently, the flag symbolises the historical homeland. I do not exclude that some of the soldiers of the new unit have Armenian citizenship.

Dear readers, I have been digging through a decent number of Armenian telegram channels, patriotic towards their Motherland and benevolent towards Russia. Alas, I did not find any news about the creation of "ArBat" there. Perhaps, I did not search well.

However, this news is widely commented on pro-Western Armenian channels. On those channels, where there are three flags - Armenia, USA and yellow-blue. Now I will be extremely correct, so as not to anger the vulnerable Zen. The authors of these comments with Armenian names and surnames condemn their compatriots as much as possible. To put it very mildly, they disapprove. They resent the flag on their chevrons. Some call to go to "Artsakh". Alarmed...

Opinions on Russian channels are divided. I know that they will be divided here too. Along with critical remarks about the markets of Sochi, there are many posts of approval and support. There is hope for the creation of Tajik, Kyrgyz, Uzbek and even Azerbaijani national battalions. My position - I support it. This is how we will win!" The end of the article.

The way the author of the article (who clearly supports the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine) enthusiastically welcomes the creation of the battalion "ARBAT" and its participation in the Russian-Ukrainian war shows how this battalion can be "built up", which has all the prospects of becoming a PMC on the scale of PMC "Wagner" (the Armenian diaspora has money to finance such a PMC). It is clear that the "backbone" of the structure and its leadership will be made up of Armenians. But the main "cannon fodder" - mercenaries, as well as leading military specialists may well become "brothers in arms" of the current militants of "Arbat", i.e. mainly Russian soldiers and former "Wagnerites", who also went through the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Moreover, such PMCs will not stop even Russia's defeat in the war in Ukraine. On the contrary, it will give a mass of potential mercenaries who have gained combat experience, but disappointed in the "Russian idea" and ready to fight for money wherever "customers" order. They may well be transferred to "liberate Artsakh" as part of the new PMC.

In principle, the creation of a new "Armenian PMC", the backbone of which will obviously be a battalion "ARBAT" could have been foreseen long ago.  In the article "Future fighters of the Krasnodar, Rostov and Stavropol Armenian "People's Republics" through the PMC "Wagner" from criminals become "heroes". (https://kavkazplus.com/news.php?id=38852 ) "Kavkaz Plus" has already written about the fact that the officers of PMCs for the operation in Karabakh are already being prepared.

Earlier this year, during the awarding of medals "For the capture of Soledar" by the owner of PMC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin, the commander of the assault group Hayk Gasparyan with the call sign "Abrek" was also awarded. earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin also awarded him the medal "For Bravery". There is no doubt that these "Armenian cadres", together with criminals gaining "combat experience" in Ukraine in the ranks of PMC "Wagner", can be transferred to Karabakh at any moment to fight for the separatists.

Armenian media also reacted to the appearance of "ARBAT" battalion. And they directly express their wishes that the new military formation "having gone through the school" of the Russian-Ukrainian war would eventually go to fight for "Artsakh".

The article by Avetis Babajanyan titled "ARBAT" WILL SERVE TO SAVE WHICH NATION?" was published on 8 July 2023 in the Armenian newspaper Hraparak ( https://hraparak.am/post/a27acfd056cf0c4c8ba073139ae66844) In this article again the role of "Wagnerian" Hayk Ghassaryan in the formation of the "ARBAT" battalion is especially noted:

"The Russian, Ukrainian, Georgian and Azerbaijani press is actively discussing the blessing of the commanders of the Armenian volunteer battalion "Arbat" by Archbishop Erzas Nersisyan, the spiritual leader of the Russian-Nor Nakhchivan Diocese, on 30 June in the Armenian Church in Moscow. The battalion's commander is Hayk Gasparyan, originally from "Artsakh", who said in his speech that their goal is to serve the Motherland. According to the Ukrainian press, the godfather of the Armenian military company is Armen Sarkisyan, a resident of the city of Gorlovka, Donetsk region, a criminal authority who, according to Ukrainian intelligence, is the "overseer" of some colonies in the occupied territory of Ukraine, as well as in Russia. Large and influential Russian-Armenian businessmen are behind the group.

This is the union of Armenian business, criminal authorities, the church and military forces in Russia. The battalion commander said that although Armenian fighters were in different military units fighting in Donbass, it was now decided to unite all Armenian fighters into one military unit. "We have decided to emphasise everything common: both history and politics... Therefore, the battalion will fight under the Armenian flag. There will be unity," he said. "Was "Arbat" created only to participate in the war in Donbass, or this military group, operating under the Armenian flag, can pursue other goals, including intra-Armenian ones?

"Arbat" is a new private military company like "Wagner". Many say that after the failed military coup attempt of the "Wagner" group on 24 June, the Russian authorities decided not to completely refuse to involve such groups in combat operations, but rather to encourage the creation of new such groups, as the Russian Army command needs the newly formed groups to fill the gap created in the front after the "Wagner" group fighters left. On the other hand, by creating many smaller groups instead of one large group, their political ambitions to seize power in the country can be curbed.

The creation of military units based on the principle of nationality is also not new. There has been such experience since the Patriotic War, such as the Armenian Taman Division. Chechen, Tatar, Bashkir and other national military units are still fighting in the Russian army. According to the idea of the army command, the national military units will compete with each other, which will ensure better results on the battlefield. But unlike the Chechens, Bashkirs and Tatars, which are national autonomies within Russia, Armenia is an independent state, and therefore the formation of the Armenian National Military Group is not like the others. This will ensure better results on the battlefield.

There is another interesting detail in this story. Akhra Avidzba, the commander of the group "Wild Division of Donbass" took part in the event held in the Armenian Church. This is explained by the fact that "Arbat" will operate within the division, which is headed by Avidzba. Avidzba is not only an active participant of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a hero of the self-proclaimed "DNR", but also an initiator and active participant of political changes taking place in his native Abkhazia. In 2020, on Avidzba's initiative, protests were held in Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia, against incumbent President Raul Khajimba, who was forced to resign in order to maintain stability in the country and prevent a fratricidal war. It was clear that Avidzba acted with the approval of the Russian authorities. And it was agreed with the Russian authorities to leave Donetsk for some time and go to Sukhumi with his compatriots to establish "justice" in the country. He accused the Abkhazian authorities of killing his brother Alkhas Khasik, a thief in law. A group of Abkhazian and Armenian volunteers led by Avidzba arrived in Armenia in early November 2020 to participate in the Armenian-Azerbaijani war, but did not have time to take part in the fighting.

Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong said: "Every communist must realise the following truth: weapons breed force." This is true not only for China. For Hayk Gasparyan and the men of his battalion, Russia may be the homeland for the moment, and they, having received the blessing of the Armenian Apostolic Church, will go to the Ukrainian front to help Russia's victory over Ukraine.

But Kombat Gasparyan, being a native of "Artsakh", cannot but know that his real homeland, Armenia and "Artsakh", need more help. Not only help, but even salvation. It is possible that the Armenian Battalion is being created primarily for this purpose, it's just that it hasn't been announced yet. When we talk about saving Armenia, we primarily mean saving it from the current authorities. Especially since the Russian authorities will not be against the implementation of this rescue plan." End of article.

Hraparak newspaper recognises that "ARBAT" is a new PMC, similar to "Wagner". The newspaper particularly draws attention to the fact that why the failed attempted military coup by the Wagnerites on 24 June, the Russian authorities decided not to refuse to engage such groups in combat operations, but on the contrary to encourage them to "fill the gap created in the front after the withdrawal of fighters of the group "Wagner". Moreover, there were no reprisals against the rebel "Wagnerites".

But a "gap" in the Armenian nationalist project will also appear after the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh. And the publication Hraparak clearly hopes that in the future, the activities of the battalion "ARBAT" and PMCs on its basis will be aimed at "saving Armenia and Artsakh". That is, in fact, a structure is being created that will be "stuffed" with Russian weapons and "wasted meat" to fight for Armenian interests and "Artsakh" separatists.

This is the reason for the rush to form the "Arbat" - the separatists have little time left. In November 2024, the term of stay of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh expires, and the Armenian lobby clearly intends to "ignite a war" to save the separatists by then. With the use of PMCs, which are beginning to be hastily formed obviously not without the help of the Kremlin and Russian security services.

Grigol Giorgadze