Everything is going towards the fact that the U.S. will finally "snatch" from Russia the role of the main peacemaker in the settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the same time, unlike the Kremlin, Washington does not need the "suspended situation" with the existing separatist pseudo-state entities like Artsakh (the "defence" of which is largely the justification for Russia's military presence in the region).

The U.S. is interested in concluding a sustainable peace as soon as possible, unblocking communications and finally forcing Russia out of the South Caucasus. Taking on the functions of an effective "peacemaker" in the region.

Armen Grigoryan, Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, has been in the United States since 4 July 2023 to work out the conditions of Russia's "replacement". In an interview following the visit, he emphasised that Armenia is using "existing platforms" to expand security cooperation with the United States. Options on how to "open new doors" are also being discussed.

"We have made a lot of progress. The results will be seen in the long term. Armenia is ready to move forward. Yerevan is currently seeking to deepen and expand the bilateral agenda with the US," Armen Grigoryan said, referring to the peaceful settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armen Grigoryan also mentioned the Zangezur corridor issue. According to him, "Unblocking of roads will mean the realisation of the Armenian Crossroads concept. It also includes the construction of North-South motorway. Armenia, as a country, will become a more active participant of regional trade turnover, which will bring it additional income, and economic activity can create "additional security guarantees".

When asked whether the fact that Armenia is a member of the economic and military unions operating under the aegis of Russia hinders the cooperation with the Americans, he answered that "there are no such problems at the moment".

Armen Grigoryan also sees great potential for the intensification and strengthening of Armenian-American relations. Among the areas of co-operation, he singled out the economy and energy, assuring that everything will be discussed - from small issues to "broad co-operation in the security sphere".

Meanwhile, Armenian media, especially pro-Russian media, reporting on the first results of the visit of the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan to the United States, are already "sounding the alarm". According to their information, during Grigorian's meeting with Jake Sullivan a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan was discussed. Armen Grigoryan was presented with 7 demands of Washington and Baku:

1. The peace treaty should be signed before the end of the year and only in Washington.

2. Armenia undertakes to accept 65,000 Azerbaijani refugees in its southern regions.

3. An agency from Baku should be opened in Zangezur (Syunik) to deal with the security problems of Azerbaijanis in Armenia.

4. Armenia pledges to withdraw the Russian base by 2026 and replace it with NATO training units under the Eastern Partnership programme.

 5. The issue of enclaves: Armenia undertakes to give Azerbaijan the enclaves that were part of the Azerbaijani SSR under the USSR.

6. Opening of the Zangezur corridor with the participation of the International Customs Organisation.

7. Armenia's renunciation of "Nagorno-Karabakh".

Naturally, Armenian revanchists and "Artsakh" separatists are categorically against most of the above-mentioned points. Russia is also against them, as it realises that its influence in the region is coming to an end.

 However, who is to blame for this? Didn't Russia have every opportunity to facilitate the return of Azerbaijani refugees not only to the territories of Azerbaijani Karabakh occupied until autumn 2020, but also to the former Armenian SSR? As it has, by the way, all possibilities for the return of Georgian refugees to Abkhazia. And then it would have retained its influence in the South Caucasus as a real peacemaker!

At one time, "giving hope" to Georgia, Russia allowed return of Georgian refugees to the Gali district of Abkhazia in 1994. Then many Georgian refugees from other districts of Abkhazia "lit up with hope". Alas, their hopes were not destined to come true. After all, the Gali district was the only one in Abkhazia where Armenians did not live and where they did not rush to seize "trophy" Georgian housing as they did in Gagra and Sukhumi.  In these cities, as in most of the territory of Abkhazia, Georgian houses and flats were "divided" by representatives of the "oldest" people together with separatist marauders and organised ethnic cleansing. Armenian nationalists did not just want to see Georgians in Abkhazia, which they began to rapidly "take over".

As a result, the Kremlin, following the lead of the Armenian lobby, did not even want to hear about the return of Georgian refugees. Conversely, it began to "fix" ethnic cleansing, and in 2008 proceeded to the direct occupation of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and Samachablo, recognising their "independence".

Naturally, the Kremlin did not even raise the issue of return of Azerbaijani refugees to the Armenian-occupied territories of Karabakh. And Azerbaijani refugees could not even dream of returning to Zangezur, if Russia's geopolitical dominance in the region remained intact.

Even after being blockaded and being interested in opening the Zangezur corridor, the Kremlin again did not mention the very possibility of the return of Azerbaijani refugees. Just as Moscow categorically does not want to hear about the return of Georgian refugees to Abkhazia, even being "vestedly interested" in the opening of the railway through Abkhazia.

And now it turns out that the Kremlin's policy of supporting separatism and ethnic cleansing is hitting Russia's very interests. The U.S. makes it clear that by "throwing" Russia out of Armenia, it can not only open the Zangezur corridor without problems, but also ensure the return of Azerbaijanis to Zangezur, Iravan and the region of Lake Gokcha (Sevan). I.e. to meet the aspirations of the Azerbaijani people!

Well, and Armenian nationalists from the United States will also be "consoled" by another Nancy Pelosi, shedding tears at the genocide memorial.

 Today Russia is also missing an opportunity to restore its geopolitical influence in Georgia, to return the occupied territories and Georgian refugees to their homes. And tomorrow the same United States, having "thrown" the same Russia out of Abkhazia and Samachablo, will restore the territorial integrity of Georgia and return the exiled Georgian population there. As a result, Russia, which for the past decades has been at the mercy of the Armenian lobby, will forever go down in history as a country that tried to "legalise" ethnic cleansing and thus lost its geopolitical position.

Varden Tsulukidze