During the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin and PMC "Wagner" on 24 July 2023, which almost ended in a military coup in Russia, very interesting information was passed, indicating that the regime in Tehran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are ready to carry out military operations many thousands of kilometres from the Iranian borders.

At that time, senior IRGC commander Sayyid Mujtaba said that Tehran was ready to provide direct military support to Moscow - in other words, to participate in the Russian civil war. Sayyid Mujtaba then noted, "If necessary, we will prevent the fall of [Vladimir] Putin, just as we prevented the fall of [Bashar] Assad. We will not allow the dirty intentions of the West to be realised."

Later the same day, the pro-Kremlin telegram channel Rybar reported:

"...[Iraq's Shiites] are ready to move Shiite militia units to Moscow at the first request to support the President and end the turmoil. By the way, they too have long been ready to go to the front in the NWO zone to fight alongside the RF Armed Forces. But, alas, they are not called. Despite the support for the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the past, now the sympathies of the Shiites are on the side of Vladimir Putin".

Then, on 24 July 2023, with the mediation of Alexander Lukashenko, it was possible to agree to end the rebellion. But the IRGC's readiness to "stand up" for the Russian government speaks volumes.

While the IRGC was ready at a critical moment to intervene in the internal armed struggle in a nuclear power and protect Moscow from rebels (with the obvious expectation of eventually gaining access to nuclear weapons from a "grateful" Putin), Tehran's plans to "replace" Russia in the South Caucasus are all the more realistic. This is what Armenian nationalists and "Artsakh" separatists also want, who realise that in the conditions of the war in Ukraine the Russian Federation simply does not have the strength to fight for their interests in the Caucasus.

Apparently, the IRGC does not rule out the possibility of "breaking through" to the Black Sea basin. After all, Iranian analysts are talking about it directly, strongly protesting against the opening of the Zangezur corridor. Unimpeded access through Zangezur not only to Armenia, but also through Armenia to Georgia and the Black Sea is important for them. Given the presence of separatists and "fifth columnists" in Georgia itself, it cannot be ruled out that the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the IRGC will undertake an armed adventure not only to support Armenian nationalists, but also to "break a corridor" through Georgia to the Black Sea together with them. Especially since Russia, which is failing in the war and in the Black Sea basin with Ukraine, will obviously not object to Iran's presence in the region.

However, Azerbaijan and Turkey, which take a constructive position on the peaceful settlement of conflicts in the South Caucasus on the basis of recognising the territorial integrity of states and eliminating separatist pseudo-entities, stand in the way of the implementation of such plans.

Israel also has absolutely no need for Iran's strengthening "northwards". Since Israel today has enormous problems from the fact that the IRGC has "settled" in Syria. If the IRGC, which has already opened its base (representative office) in Zangezur, expands its influence in the South Caucasus, it will have serious trump cards in its confrontation with Israel.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Galant's recent visit to Azerbaijan, where he met with the country's leadership to discuss possibilities for expanding defence cooperation between Tel Aviv and Baku, was a response to Iran's pressure on the Caucasus.

"...concluded a fruitful visit to Azerbaijan, where he met with President Aliyev, Defence Minister Hasanov and the head of the State Border Service, Guliyev. We discussed opportunities to expand defence cooperation...Our defence ties contribute to the security of both countries as well as regional peace and stability," Gallant tweeted.

Following Yoav Gallant's visit, Israeli portal i24news.tv published a piece titled "Gallant's visit to Azerbaijan highlights Iranian threat to regional security."

"It is in the interest of Baku and Jerusalem to support each other in the fight against the looming Iranian threat.

Notwithstanding media reports, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant's two-day visit to the Azerbaijani capital Baku was not directly related to the attempted attack on the Israeli embassy by an Afghan citizen trained and sent by Iran. The visit was pre-planned and, given the number of agreements signed over the two days, it took some time to prepare.

Information about what agreements were signed is not publicly available. But there are hints indicating that most of them are related to the issue of Iran, the sworn enemy of Azerbaijan and Israel, which has proclaimed Azerbaijan a "Zionist base" in the Caucasus.

For instance, the Azerbaijani military has published footage of drills on small flying targets designed to mimic Iran's infamous Shahed-136 barrage munition, thousands of which have been sold to Russia and are being used to bomb Ukraine. This is the first documented exercise of its kind conducted by Azerbaijani forces, and it couldn't be more appropriate.

In several recent clashes on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, the Armenian side has used Shaheds against Azerbaijani positions. It is no outlandish to suggest that Israel, which is at the forefront of anti-missile and drone technology, has something in store to help its strategic partner.

It is also an excellent testing ground that will help the Israeli defence industry develop better ways to counter the threat of such UAVs in the near future. Moreover, according to Israeli research centre ALMA, Iranian proxies such as Hizbullah will use these drones in a potential military escalation with Israel.

"The public is not sufficiently aware of the dangers posed by drones. This is a new type of global threat, and I hope Israel is aware of the information about Iranian companies," Tal Beeri, head of ALMA's research department, recently noted.

Another recent security concern is the use of radio jamming devices against GPS satellite navigation systems on Azerbaijani passenger aircraft. The local Defence Ministry said that similar devices have been used by Armenian separatists in the Karabakh enclave, which is controlled by the Russian military.

Israel already faced the same threat several years ago when the Russians used such devices in Syria, disrupting the GPS signals of planes landing at Tel Aviv airport. This problem has been solved in Israel, so it can give a solution to its ally.

It should be noted that Iranian state media reacted strongly to Gallant's visit.

"Azerbaijan prefers to maintain its alliance with Israel and Turkey..... In the last six months, the Zionists have intensified their attacks on Iran, and Gallant's meeting with the head of Azerbaijan's border service cannot but cause concern for the Iranian authorities. To counter Baku's unfriendly policies, Tehran should supply Yerevan with defensive weapons to restore the balance of power in the South Caucasus," pro-government think-tank Rahborde Moazer said.

"Once again, as Azerbaijan and Iran begin to warm to each other and tensions subside, Israel finds a way to provoke escalation. It is not without reason that Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant arrived in Baku immediately after the visit of Iran's Foreign Minister to Azerbaijan. Israel continues to try to turn Azerbaijan into the same threat to Iran that Lebanon has become to Israel. The weapons Israel supplies to Azerbaijan are not intended for war with Armenia. These weapons are being stockpiled for use against Iran," said the "reformist" Iranian publication Shargh Daily.

Overall, it is in the interests of Baku and Jerusalem to support each other against the looming Iranian threat. Only with proper diplomatic relations and mutual exchange of experience and expertise will it be possible to counter the threat of Iranian drones." The end of the article.

The information that Iran is supplying Armenia (and possibly "Artsakh" separatists in Azerbaijani Karabakh) with Shahed drones is very important in this article. The very supplies from Iran, which the Russian Federation has brought so much grief and suffering to the inhabitants of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, such supplies are a direct violation by Armenia and Iran of UN Security Council Resolution 1747. The fifth paragraph of this resolution, adopted on 24 March 2007, directly prohibits Iran from exporting arms and all other countries from buying any Iranian arms.

It is also important to understand the channel through which these illegal arms shipments are going - through the Iranian-Armenian border and Zangezur. And these supplies pose a direct threat to the security of the region, which is of concern not only to Azerbaijan and Turkey, but also to Israel.

Hence it becomes clear why Iran and the IRGC are so opposed to the peaceful opening of the Zangezur corridor. They need Zangezur as a "military base" north of the Arax River in order to carry out military expansion into the Caucasus from here.

However, by supporting the Armenian nationalist military machine, the IRGC may simply force Azerbaijan to demilitarise the Zangezur corridor. In the interests of at least concluding a lasting peace with Armenia. Especially since both the US and the EU are interested in such a peace today.

Varden Tsulukidze