The Kremlin's policy of artificially fuelling conflicts through separatism, making them "intractable" in principle, is failing. Although recently it allowed the Russian Federation to maintain its influence in the post-Soviet space.

Having unleashed separatist wars both in Azerbaijan's Karabakh and in Georgia's Abkhazia and Samachablo, where regular Russian army fought on the side of the separatists, Russia simultaneously strengthened its influence in the countries subjected to aggression by engaging in so-called "peacemaking". But the "peacekeeping" is specific - supporting the separatists in every possible way.

In Abkhazia and Samachablo Russian peacekeepers fulfilled the role of occupiers from the very beginning. But the Kremlin managed to impose on Georgia that until 2008 they were there with the consent of the Georgian authorities as "peacekeepers".

Everyone in Georgia remembers very well how Russian assistance to the separatists and then so-called "peacekeeping" led to ethnic cleansing - the expulsion of the Georgian population from Abkhazia and Samachablo and the occupation of 20 per cent of the country. But there was nothing they could do about it.

 Georgia was weak at that time.  In the 1990s the Kremlin in principle did not allow any other "peacekeepers" on the separatist territories except Russian ones. Also, the Russian Foreign Ministry did not allow any other geopolitical forces to settle the situation in the Georgian territories of Samachablo and Abkhazia.

As a result, the Georgian parliament had to regularly extend the mandate of Russian "peacekeepers" in Abkhazia. Until the aggression in 2008.  After August 2008 Russia simply occupied this Georgian territory. Further, as a "justification" for the presence of its troops in Abkhazia and Samachablo, the Kremlin recognised so-called "independence" of separatists, who concluded an "agreement" with the occupiers on the presence of Russian troops and military bases on this territory.

The Kremlin expected to act in the same scenario in Azerbaijani Karabakh. Even after the 44-day war, the Armenian lobby and Kremlin strategists believed that just as Georgia had regularly agreed to extend the stay of Russian "peacekeepers" in Abkhazia before the 2008 war, Azerbaijan would be forced to do the same in 2024.

The aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 was intended to make other post-Soviet countries "pliable" in the face of Russian ultimatums. The Kremlin expected that by "bringing Ukraine to its knees" and forcing it to recognise the annexation of Crimea and other territories, they would easily force the "permanent deployment" of their de facto occupation troops under the guise of "peacekeepers" in Karabakh. It is not by chance that one of the initiators of aggression against Ukraine was the Armenian lobby and the Russian Foreign Ministry headed by the Armenian nationalist Sergey Lavrov-Kalantarov.

But, the war in Ukraine did not go according to the Kremlin's original plans. The Russian army is suffering defeats, and Moscow's geopolitical position has weakened everywhere. And as a result, the Kremlin can no longer prevent other countries' peacekeeping initiatives in the same Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

This is not to mention that there is no question of extending the mandate of peacekeepers in Karabakh, which even Armenia has recognised as part of Azerbaijan. This was made clear recently by Azerbaijan's ally, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, who stated directly that Russian troops should leave Karabakh in 2025.

Most experts believe that the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations "on Western platforms" mediated by Brussels and Washington show obvious progress. Most importantly, the West, primarily the EU, is interested in peace and unblocking communications in the region. It is also obvious that effective Western mediation and the conclusion of a lasting peace on the basis of territorial integrity "kicks" Russia out of the region as an unnecessary and destructive force.

The old strategy of preserving Russia's geopolitical influence through separatism and imposing its "peacekeepers" protecting the separatists is living out its last days. After another round of talks between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels with the participation of the President of the Council of the European Union Charles Michel, the conclusion of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the mediation of the US and the EU already looks inevitable. So does the complete collapse of the "Artsakh" separatist project.  This makes the Kremlin and the Armenian lobby nervous.

Sergey Lavrov-Kalantarov is feverishly trying to save the "Artsakh" separatists. At his prompting, the Russian Foreign Ministry made a provocative statement about the "judge of the Armenian population of Karabakh" unequivocally making it clear that Russia wants to take on the role of determining their "fate" on the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan:

"In October 2022 and May 2023, at summits under the auspices of the European Union, Armenia recognised Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan's territory. We respect the sovereign decision of the Armenian leadership, but this has fundamentally changed the fundamental conditions under which the Statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia of 9 November 2020 was signed, as well as the position of the Russian peacekeeping contingent stationed in the region. We believe that in these circumstances, responsibility for the fate of the Armenian population of Karabakh should not be shifted to third countries". – The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

While emphasising that Armenia has recognised Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, the Russian Foreign Ministry makes it clear that Moscow is supposedly the "last hope" of Karabakh Armenians. (In reality, it is the separatists' last hope, while peaceful Karabakh Armenians will receive Azerbaijani citizenship and all the rights associated with it).

The Kremlin and the Armenian lobby began to play on the feelings of Karabakh Armenians. At the same time, at the Kremlin's suggestion, meetings of the Armenian population are organised in Khankendi, where the separatists cry about "blockade and genocide", while rejecting even the very idea of supplying Karabakh from the rest of Azerbaijan through Aghdam.

Russia has started to actively "rub it in" to Karabakh Armenians that they have been betrayed "in the West and Armenia itself", and Moscow remains their only and last hope. The task is clear - to heat up the situation, to carry out provocations so that the whole world believes in the "threat of a new "genocide" of Armenians", and then to get both separatists and "world Armenians" to appeal to Moscow for "help and rescue from "genocide" so that Russia, just as it "saved Ossetians from genocide" in Tskhinvali in 2008, also began to "save Karabakh Armenians from "genocide" in 2024 and beyond. This scenario is clearly designed to blackmail Azerbaijan.

Lavrov-Kalantarov wants Russian troops to remain in Karabakh beyond 2024 either as "peacekeepers" or as occupiers like Abkhazia and Samachablo. Today's Russia, bogged down in the Ukraine war, is not the Russia of the early 90s, which in fact won the separatist wars. The time of aggression and annexation through separatism is hopelessly gone. Liquidation of separatist entities is inevitable and irreversible. Russian "peacekeepers" will inevitably leave Karabakh by 2025, and the Kremlin should accept the fact that in the near future it will have to leave the occupied Georgian territories.

Aleksandr Zakhariadze