In an earlier post, the Armenian Revolutionary, a nationalist telegram channel in Hay, warned that "all enemies should remember: 'You can't mess with Armenia, and the price will be too high'", and threatened Georgia if it "dares" to prevent the transit of weapons to Armenia through its territory. The "Armenian Revolutionary" goes on to write (t.me/armenian_revolutionary/13555):

"This also applies to Georgia, first of all to Georgia. Those who betrayed the cross must know that if they impose a blockade on us again during the war, we will consider it as a declaration of war against us, as aiding and abetting the Armenian genocide, and the price they will have to pay will be excessively high, two thousand times higher than the dividends they will get from the blockade. We will find ways to punish them severely, from sponsoring an opposition loyal to us, maybe even lining our pockets, to destabilising the country internally, to undermining them economically and hundreds of other indirect measures that will leave no trace. And if they know that they can blockade us during the war and not have to pay for it, they will do it again and again, because you are cuckolds and ragheads, only a lazy man does not choose shoes. There is no other way to survive in this region. Armenia will either dominate or disappear. While the chatlakhs and hawkers believe that they can quietly trade in Turkish bras and panties, having given up their homeland, honour and independence, the enemies have no plans for Armenia's economic development, which implies the growth of military power. The plan of the enemies is total destruction, fragmentation, abolition. And when you will make the situation irreparable by supporting the hyenas, your hyenas will run away first, and you will follow them, and you will be left with a torn motherland, which you have sold for profit here and now, and after you there will be a flood, and it will come, it will certainly come, and none of you will take any responsibility for it, as it has happened for centuries".

The aforementioned threats and insults against Georgia could be attributed to the traditional inadequacy of the Hay nationalists and their exaggerated opinion of their own strength and capabilities, were it not for one thing.

On 12 November 2023, French Acmat Bastion armoured vehicles and their components arrived in the port of Poti. The consignor is the French company ARQUUS. Relevant photographs and video footage were taken in the port of Poti, which leave no doubt about the shipment of such weapons.

Azerbaijani media also reported that "military equipment sent by France for Armenia is moving through Georgia towards the Georgian-Armenian border", noting that "Georgia has long refused to transit French weapons to Armenia, but now official Tbilisi has apparently given its consent". Later, the Georgian office of Radio Liberty confirmed that the Bastion armoured personnel carriers had indeed been sent to Armenia via the Georgian port of Poti.

"The cargo came from the EU country of France and was sent to Armenia, which is not subject to sanctions. In addition, in the absence of clear instructions from the Georgian government and restrictions imposed by international regulators, APM Terminals Poti is deprived of the possibility of unreasonably refusing to accept cargo that is not subject to sanctions," said APM Terminals Poti, which manages the port.

It is also not entirely clear how the French weapons arrived at Poti. There are three possibilities: the ports of Romania or Bulgaria, or the straits of Istanbul. The likelihood of transport through Istanbul is zero, as Turkey is unlikely to allow the arms of the Yerevan regime to be transported there, and France itself will not risk transporting military cargo through the Bosphorus. According to experts, there is a high probability of transport through the Romanian port of Constanta.

What is the outcome in this case? Why did Georgia allow the transit of weapons that clearly will not contribute to peace in the South Caucasus? Is it a "curtsy" from the Georgian authorities to France for the recently granted ghostly prospect of EU membership (for which the same Turkey has been waiting for decades)? Or the consequences of blackmail by Hay nationalists? Especially considering the aggressive tone of their threats against Georgia, similar to the above-mentioned contribution by the "Armenian revolutionary"?

It turns out that threats and blackmail worked and the Georgian government gave in? In this case it is all very sad for Georgia.

Because if the country gave in to the blackmail of the Hay nationalists on the issue of weapons transit, then Hay will blackmail Georgia on other issues as well. Among other things, they could demand to "give up" occupied Abkhazia, where they have already become the majority of the population and refuse to return refugees to Abkhazia, where their houses and apartments have been confiscated by the Hayes...

At the same time, arms supplies to Armenia greatly increase the risk of a new large-scale war in the South Caucasus, which can be facilitated by France, which, against the background of Russia's "withdrawal" from the region, is clearly taking the regime in Yerevan under its full patronage. The Armenian authorities, feeling this "external support", are in no hurry to reach a peaceful settlement with their neighbours and give up their claims on their territories. This means that the probability of a "big war" in the region is increasing.

It is no coincidence that the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry issued a statement strongly condemning France for supplying armoured vehicles to Armenia, noting that such supplies serve to aggravate the situation in the region:

"These steps by France, which positions itself as a propagandist of international law, a supporter of peace and stability in the region, seriously question the efforts to normalise relations in the region on the basis of mutual recognition and respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and international borders of states, and serve to aggravate the situation.

Against the background of France's smear campaign against Azerbaijan and destructive activities in the region, these steps, which serve the policy of militarisation of Armenia, show that France is guided by misguided interests in the region.

Armenia and France must put an end to the policy of militarisation in the region, these countries must finally understand that there is no alternative to peace and cooperation in the region.

We call on the international community to refrain from arming Armenia, which is known for its aggressive policies, and to stop and condemn such illegitimate activities that hinder the establishment of peace and prosperity in the region.

The militarization of the South Caucasus region will be detrimental first and foremost to Georgia. After allowing armoured vehicles from France to pass through the port of Poti on their way to Armenia, Georgia could lose billions of dollars of investment in transit infrastructure and hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue as transit through the same port of Poti and other routes through the country decline. After all, investors and international carriers tend to avoid regions where militarisation and escalating tensions threaten a "big war".

Alexandre Chkheidze