It has been revealed that the Armenian delegation will not be attending the forthcoming CSTO Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Moscow on 19th December 2023. According to Tsovinar Khachatryan, press secretary for Alen Simonyan, the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, this was announced on Tuesday 5th December. This information is a clear demarche, suggesting that Armenia is breaking its military alliance with Russia and is planning to withdraw imminently from the CSTO. Although Yerevan has re-asserted that it maintains relations with the CSTO that are "not frozen" and no decision regarding withdrawal from the organisation has been made, it appears hypocritical.

According to logical thinking, if a small country withdraws from a military alliance or purposefully elects not to participate in it, it suggests that the country is not looking to engage in fighting. Consequently, the country should be willing to establish peaceful relationships with all its neighbouring countries, particularly since Armenia has only four immediate neighbours.

If Armenia maintains good relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia and Iran, both the CSTO and NATO are unnecessary. Following the example of Costa Rica - a Latin American country of comparable size but without territorial claims to its neighbours - Armenia may consider dissolving its army entirely.

However, Armenia persists in maintaining its territorial claims on neighbouring areas, propagating myths of a "great Armenia" and insisting on "returning" to "Artsakh," which involves occupying Azerbaijani lands. This can only be interpreted as preparation for a new war.

Furthermore, the Armenian authorities' stated intentions of concluding a peace agreement with Azerbaijan are merely a political ploy.  It is widely understood that this is a trick designed to gain time to arm themselves and again engage in warfare.

This is what the Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, had in mind when addressing the forum "Karabakh: Returning Home after 30 Years. Achievements and difficulties," concerning the prospect of concluding a peace agreement with Armenia. He underscored his country's requirement for direct and verified assurances that no revanchism will occur and that there will be no recurrence of war, with Armenia accepting the present situation in full.

"The President of Azerbaijan stated that it would be beneficial for all parties involved to focus on the issues of delimitation and border demarcation, instead of fixating on the Karabakh conflict.

Meanwhile, Armenia appears to be preparing for potential retaliation and seeking support from other allies." It is no coincidence that while it was announced that Armenia would disregard the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly meeting, Armen Grigoryan, the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, had travelled to the United States. During his visit, he discussed military cooperation issues with Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence Laura Cooper.

Armenia has maintained a long-standing military co-operation with France, a NATO member state.  However, some US politicians are alarmed by the close nature of this co-operation, fearing that France's weapons supplied to Armenia may fall into the hands of pro-Iranian radical organisations like Hezbollah. Consequently, they are requesting that Yerevan distances itself from Tehran.

This creates a paradox. Armenia is dissolving its military alliance with Russia, yet remains open to territorial acquisition through military means. As such, Armenia is procuring French weaponry and forming a military alliance with the United States. Concurrently, the US is urging Armenia to terminate its ongoing military cooperation and alliance with Iran, which is the sole country sharing a border with Armenia. Concurrently, the US is urging Armenia to terminate its ongoing military cooperation and alliance with Iran, which is the sole country sharing a border with Armenia. It is worth noting that during the 44-day war, Iran and its airspace served as conduits for arms supplies from the Russian Federation to Armenia. 

Armenia is arming itself and preparing for war while simultaneously distancing from its traditional military allies, as demanded by the new ones. It is unclear how they intend to carry out their revanchist plans and obtain military aid.

This raises a significant concern that Armenia may resort to using Georgia as a corridor to establish connections with new allies. A preliminary effort has been made towards constructing such a corridor with the initial transport of French armoured vehicles "Bastion" through Georgia. Nonetheless, it is improbable that in the event of conflict, the current Georgian authorities, who place a value on alliance with Turkey and Azerbaijan, will render these deliveries of armoured vehicles on a widespread and recurring basis.

Therefore, it must be acknowledged that Georgia committed an error in authorizing the transport of armoured vehicles from France to Armenia. It only piqued the interest of its adversaries. They have observed the functioning of the corridor and will strive to acquire power over it.

Georgia's sovereignty and security are under threat from both the "pro-Kremlin" Hay lobby and the "pro-Western" lobby of the same nationality.  Armenia and the Hayan "fifth column" in Georgia have the potential to deliberately escalate the situation in the country to install their anti-Turkish, anti-Azerbaijani and "radically pro-Western" proxies in power. To potentially create political instability in Georgia to establish a controlled chaos, allowing Western allies to arrange for a military corridor through Georgian land for Armenia.

George Kvinitadze