On 7th December 2023, a joint statement from the Administration of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia was released.

The statement declares "there is a historic chance to attain the much-awaited peace in the region" and is agreed upon by the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan. Both states reiterate their commitment to resolving their relations and finalizing a peace treaty that is anchored in respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Following negotiations between the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the Office of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the parties agreed to take significant measures to foster trust between the two states.

Guided by humanitarian principles and as a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Azerbaijan has released 32 Armenian military personnel.

As an act of goodwill and guided by humanitarian values, the Republic of Armenia has released two Azerbaijani servicemen.

Additionally, in a show of support, Armenia has withdrawn its candidature and expressed its support for the Republic of Azerbaijan's bid to host COP29, the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan hope that other countries within the Eastern European Group will also lend their support to the bid of the Republic of Azerbaijan to host the Conference. As a gesture of goodwill, the Republic of Azerbaijan expresses its backing for the candidature of the Republic of Armenia for membership in the Bureau of the Eastern European Group "COP".

The statement's appearance is highly symbolic, as it is an agreement between parties without third-party mediators. Yerevan seems to be acknowledging a basic truth - negotiations must occur when an opportunity arises, and it is essential not to let such an occasion slip by.

 This joint statement by the offices of Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev regarding Armenia's prompt preparedness to finalize a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and its willingness to engage in direct negotiations with Baku for such an agreement needs to be evaluated objectively.

Although belatedly, Yerevan has commenced learning from the "Karabakh lesson". It is important to remember that the Hay "Artsakh" separatists delayed their response until the final moments. They turned down peace initiatives proposed by Azerbaijan, declined to disband their unlawful entities and armed groups, and demonstrated no willingness to kickstart the process of reintegrating the Hayan populace of the Karabakh region into Azerbaijan. In the end, they suffered a devastating loss.

Today, it is widely understood among Armenian politicians with nationalist tendencies that had the Hay community in Karabakh accepted Azerbaijan's proposals, a sizeable Hay population would be currently residing in Karabakh. Consequently, the authorities in Yerevan would not have encountered difficulties accommodating the Hayes who had vacated Karabakh.

For instance, what if Karabakh had initiated talks for reintegrating into Azerbaijan and taken concrete steps in that direction immediately after the peace agreement concluded after the 44-day war?  The Hayes had all the possibilities to do so. It would have been far better for them than what they experienced after Azerbaijan's counter-terrorism operation - which is clear.

Many individuals may have obtained Azerbaijani citizenship and remained in Karabakh. In contrast, others may have sold their homes discreetly and departed, receiving financial assistance to purchase a new residence and settle elsewhere. It is unnecessary to indulge in demagoguery or incorrect assumptions made by purported 'experts', who claim that reconciliation between Armenians and Azerbaijanis is impossible after the war. The global experience proves that if a concerted effort is made towards peace and peaceful coexistence, the reconciliation of peoples is indeed possible.

Vukovar, a town in Croatia situated on the border with Serbia, gained notoriety due to the intense conflict between Serbs and Croats during the Croatian Civil War. The conflict began as a result of the aspirations of local Serbian separatists, with the support of Serbia, to establish a separatist Serbian "autonomy" in a region of Croatia inhabited by a Serbian population, leading to its secession from Croatia.

 Throughout the war, Serbian formations carried out a complete ethnic cleansing of the Croatian population. According to 1991 data, 43% of Vukovar's population were Croats, and 37% were Serbs. However, after the town's battles, almost no Croats remained in the dilapidated city. Supported by the Milosevic regime in Belgrade, Serbian separatists formed the "Serbian Autonomous Region of Slavonia, Baranja, and Western Srem". This region, along with other Serbian separatist enclaves, merged at the end of 1991 to form the separatist entity called the "Republic of Serbian Krajina".

However, the vast majority of the "Republika Srpska Krajina" was reclaimed by the Croatian army in 1995 during Operation Storm. While Vukovar continued to be under Serbian control (as was Hankendi after the 44-day Hayan War), it dawned on Serbian separatists and Serbia, who supported them, that they were not able to retain foreign territory. Ultimately, a peaceful agreement was reached to reintegrate the vestiges of the separatist "Srpska Krajina" into Croatia.

The areas that were under the occupation of Serbian units, including Vukovar, were reintegrated into Croatia without any conflict in 1998. The reconstruction of the city commenced then. Serbia declined to endorse the secessionist movements in neighbouring countries such as Bosnia and Croatia. However, the support provided for separatism on foreign territory did have adverse effects on Serbia. Albanians in Kosovo questioned why Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia could have "independent states" while they could not. This led to the unresolved Kosovo conflict.

During the war and ethnic cleansing, almost all Croats fled the town of Vukovar in the Serb separatist territories of Croatia. However, after peaceful reintegration, some Croats returned but some Serbs left in 1998, though most remained.

According to the 2001 census, Croats constituted 57.5 per cent of the populace whilst Serbs accounted for 32.9 per cent. As per the 2011 census, Croats made up 57.3 per cent of the population and Serbs 34.9 per cent, indicating the Serbian share has nearly returned to pre-war norms.

Nonetheless, a reconciliation between the ethnicities occurred in Vukovar, which can be attributed to Serbia's rational approach. The country stopped endorsing separatism and territorial demands against its neighbouring nation. Vukovar Serbs have been granted Croatian citizenship and are entitled to all the associated rights. They feel perfectly content without any additional recognition as Croatian citizens.

The Karabakh Hayes could adopt a similar lifestyle, provided they and their advocates in Yerevan possess the wisdom to initiate peaceful reintegration into Azerbaijan post-November 2020. Instead, they depended on Russia, France, Iran, and Ruben Vardanyan, wasting the "time of opportunity" with futile endeavours to salvage the separatist plan. Rather, they could have learnt from the Serbs, where a similar example could be beneficial.

 Consequently, the Serbs now inhabit Vukovar, while a few Hayes remain in Khankendi. However, Azerbaijan still extends an offer to those born in Karabakh to return and become its citizens.

It is significant that following the joint statement from the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, emphasizing their shared motivation for peace, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan made a business trip to Serbia on 10th December 2023. During the visit, he attended the opening ceremony of the Serbia-Bulgaria gas interconnector with the Presidents of Serbia and Bulgaria. Gas from Azerbaijan and the Caspian region will predominantly supply the interconnector.

Serbia and Bulgaria had territorial disputes in the recent past and engaged in hostilities during World War I and World War II. However, they have since resolved their disagreements and acknowledged the sanctity of internationally recognised borders. Currently, they are working together amicably, including in transit.

Yerevan needs to acknowledge the potential for repetition of the fate of the separatist entity "Artsakh" on the territory of the Republic of Armenia, which was formed on the historical lands of Azerbaijan if they persist in making territorial claims to neighbouring states, reject peace proposals, and rely on distant "allies". If a peaceful settlement cannot be reached and the rights of the indigenous population of these territories to return are grossly violated, Azerbaijan reserves the right to defend them. Additionally, Azerbaijan proposes that the Hayans of Karabakh return and accept Azerbaijani citizenship. However, what is Yerevan's response to the Azerbaijanis who were expelled from the Republic of Armenia's territory?

Armenia and Azerbaijan must reach a peace agreement today that includes unblocking communications and the right of refugees and displaced persons to return. It is in Armenia's best interest to avoid delays and unrealistic expectations.

George Kvinitadze