The 15th anniversary of the Russian Federation's August 2008 aggression against Georgia in defense of separatists and the situation in the South Caucasus and Black Sea region show that the threat of a new invasion has not only not diminished, but has increased. Moreover, this invasion may well be organized without the formal participation of the Russian army, for example, by PMCs.

This conclusion can be drawn from the interview given to the pro-Kremlin publication Ukraina.ru, which supports the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and separatism, by Vladimir Yeranosyan, an expert of the Bureau of Military and Political Analysis, associate professor of the Department of Sociology of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, candidate of political sciences, captain of the first rank of the reserve.

This interview was published under the title "Vladimir Yeranosyan on who is behind the attack of the AFU surface drones on the naval base in Novorossiysk" (https://ukraina.ru/20230805/1048493724.html ). It is about the attack of Ukrainian surface drones on the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk on August 4, 2023. On that day, Ukraine attacked the Novorossiysk naval base with drones and managed to damage the large landing ship "Olenegorsk Miner". The ship was tilted to port, but remained afloat and was towed to the dock.

Vladimir Yeranosyan stated that the drone that damaged the Russian warship "was launched from a pleasure boat, a seine, a grain carrier or a tanker, and the point of departure was the port of Poti or Anaklia". And although he adds that "this is my version", there is no doubt that such a provocative anti-Georgian version was coordinated by him with more senior representatives of the Armenian lobby, who lately have been doing everything to organize a new Russian aggression against Georgia:

"There is accumulated experience of using these drones not only from naval bases, but also from civilian vessels. These vessels can be of small displacement, roughly speaking, it could be a pleasure boat. Such ships are completely untraceable.

These ships can go to sea from the areas of Batumi, Anaklia and Poti, which were controlled by NATO. And near our base in Gudauta and the port of Novorossiysk. Such a boat can launch a drone at a very short distance from our ports and military bases.

This means that certain Georgian terrorists, acting independently of the policy of their own state, which is being pursued by Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, are trying to destabilize the situation between our countries and destroy economic relations. Such provocations are carried out with the support of the SBU and Saakashvili's party". - Vladimir Yeranosyan said.

There is an interesting pattern - an Armenian nationalist formally in the "service" of the Russian Federation cannot simply not call for aggression against Georgia on any occasion or hint at it in any way. Especially in the current critical situation for Armenian nationalists and revanchists, when their separatist project "Artsakh" is on the verge of complete collapse.

 In order to save "Artsakh" by fomenting a "great war", Armenian revanchists need to penetrate a "military corridor" to Armenia and Azerbaijan Karabakh through the territory of Georgia. And at the same time this "corridor" together with the Georgian seaports and Samtskhe-Javakheti ("Javakhk") in their plans should provide the access of "Great Armenia" to the sea. For the sake of this goal they cannot stop before any provocation.

And now Vladimir Yeranosyan is trying to "lead" the Russian military machine to fight "against Georgian terrorism" - i.e. to invade Georgia. And according to his theory about the alleged involvement of certain "Georgian terrorists" in attacks on Russian naval bases, these "terrorists" are independent of the Georgian government.

 What else is this but an "invitation" to either the Russian army or PMCs to invade the still unoccupied territory of Georgia? And to start an "anti-terrorist operation", together with the opening of a "military corridor" to Armenia?

Varden Tsulukidze