After former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the possible annexation of Abkhazia and so-called 'South Ossetia' by Russia, the situation in Abkhazia was tense for several days. However, the separatist authorities assured the Abkhazians that the "thousand-year-old statehood of Abkhazia" would not surrender even to an "ally" - an occupier. Moreover, the same Dmitry Medvedev met with separatist leaders from Sukhumi and Tskhinvali and congratulated them on the 15th anniversary of Russia's recognition of their "independence". This was interpreted by the separatist media as meaning that the issue of Abkhazia's annexation was supposedly not on the Kremlin's agenda.

For some reason, however, no one paid attention to a rather lengthy interview with the separatist "president" of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, in the programme "Main thing with Olga Belova" on the Russian propaganda channel "Zvezda" on 27 August.

First of all, Aslan Bzhania confirmed Dmitry Medvedev's words about the imminent annexation of Abkhazia. But only in a different format - the so-called "union state". And secondly, Bzhania made it clear that a "great war" is being prepared in the South Caucasus and that separatist territories, including Abkhazia, will be used for further aggression against Georgia.

Thus, by declaring the need to strengthen the separatist Abkhazia's ties with Russia, the puppet "president" Aslan Bzhania actually confirmed the thesis of the imminent "accession" to Russia in the form of the so-called "union state":

"The last interstate treaty, signed in November 2014, stipulates conditions that determine our future - Abkhazia's participation in international processes initiated or organised by Russia. We are ready, if the conditions are ripe, to consider participation in the union state, we will not spoil anything, we can bring an element of refinement, it seems to me"., Aslan Bzhania said.

In fact, the format of the so-called "Union State of Russia and Belarus" was nothing more than a form of annexation of Belarus by Russia. For the sake of this form of annexation, the Kremlin once supported the accession of Alexander Lukashenko to power in Belarus. But, as we know, Lukashenko "abandoned" the Kremlin and did not give up the sovereignty and statehood of Belarus. The so-called "treaty on the union state" became nothing more than an empty piece of paper.

Thus, the "extravagance" mentioned by Aslan Bzhania that the separatist Abkhazia will bring to the so-called "union state" is nothing but the complete deprivation of the state sovereignty of the "ally" and its annexation. In other words, what they have failed to do with Belarus, they intend to do with separatist Abkhazia, which is completely dependent on the Kremlin. There will not even be a referendum for such an annexation in the form of a "union state". One day the Abkhazians will wake up and find that they are a "union" part of Russia, even without the fiction of autonomy.

Now the Kremlin is thinking of expanding southwards in the form of a 'union state'. And it clearly does not intend to limit itself to the already occupied Abkhazia and Samara.

The main goal of the "union state with extravagance" format is the annexation of Georgia, which has a much more important geographical position than Belarus. Of course, unlike the separatists, whose annexation by the "union state" will not be questioned by anyone, the Kremlin plans to annex Georgia by means of war and invasion. And it intends to foment war through the separatists.

In the same interview with Zvezda, Aslan Bzhania openly advocates war, saying that his Western partners want Georgia to open a "second front" against Russia. At the same time, he expresses confidence that the separatists (with Russia's help, of course) will be able to defeat Georgia. "Georgia will not be able to win any war, any hostilities," says Aslan Bzhania.

Such statements by the Sukhumi separatist in some respects echo the statements of Armenian nationalists and "Artsakh" separatists before the 44-day war and at its very beginning. They say that the Azerbaijanis "do not know how to fight" and that Armenia will easily "defeat" them. As we can see, similar sentiments are cultivated by the separatist leaders among their people. And it is also clear that, at the behest of the Armenian lobby, what is needed most of all is a new war, a new Russian aggression against Georgia. So that Russia could break through the separatist territories and Georgia through a "military corridor" to Armenia and "save Artsakh", at the same time cutting off the energy and logistical communications of the Middle Silk Road.
It is no coincidence that Aslan Bzhania, when talking about why Georgia does not dare to open a "second front" against Russia on its own initiative, compares it to Turkey, repeating the favourite thesis of Armenian nationalists and historians that during the Second World War Turkey was allegedly "hostile" to the USSR and "prepared to attack":

"We can, however, think of examples from the relatively recent past... In World War II, 20 divisions in Turkey were on the border with the Soviet Union. They were waiting for the outcome of the battle of Stalingrad. We even know that the Turks did not open another front at that time. Not because they felt sympathy, but because of the situation... So it became clear that the punishment would be inevitable"..

Armenian nationalists still regret that Turkey 'did not suffer the inevitable punishment' for its alleged 'intention to attack the USSR'. But they hope that Georgia will suffer such "inevitable punishment" in the near future.

Let us remember that Turkey did not keep its divisions on the border in 1942 because it wanted to attack the USSR (as Armenian historians claim). It was because they did not want to repeat with the whole country the operation carried out by the USSR and Great Britain against Iran in 1941.

Then, Iran was occupied by them and after the war, the USSR did not want to leave the north of the country (historical southern Azerbaijan) and wanted to keep the pro-Soviet government there. The fact that the USSR occupied the north of Iran but did not dare to occupy the north-east of Turkey, with the subsequent transfer of Turkish lands to the Armenian SSR, still gives no rest to Armenian nationalists for whom the "partition of Turkey" is a pipe dream.

In an interview in 1942, Aslan Bjaniya mentioned Turkey's unpopular position with Armenian "rulers", which is an indicator of who determines Abkhaz separatist policy today. And is trying to use these separatists to ignite a "great war" in the South Caucasus.

The aggressors do not even need a special reason. It is enough to organise the slightest provocation in Georgia, after which both the separatists and the Armenian lobby will start talking about the "threat of a coup d'état" in Georgia and the "second front". To then launch a "preventive" aggression like the one the Kremlin launched against Ukraine in February 2022.

Varden Tsulukidze